Does God Make Empty Threats?: When God says judgement is coming… and then it doesn’t

A little while ago I wrote an article called Does God Change His Mind? Yes, No, Maybe? I finished it reasonably happy with where I’d landed. Then my brain did what my brain tends to do and found another problem.

If God knows everything, if He doesn’t change His mind in the way that we do, and if His character is the same yesterday, today and forever, what are we supposed to do with those moments in Scripture where God announces judgement… and then doesn’t do it? Because He knew He wasn’t going to do it. And if God knew He wasn’t going to do the thing He said He was going to do, surely what He said was… a lie?

Obviously, I’m not foolish enough to suggest God is a liar. Apart from being a fairly catastrophic theological hill to die on, Jesus describes Himself as the way, the truth and the life. Titus tells us God does not lie. Hebrews goes further and says it is impossible for God to lie. So I’m fairly confident the problem isn’t with God. Which means, rather inconveniently, it might be with my argument.

But the argument seems logical. God knows the future. God says something will happen. God knows it won’t happen. It doesn’t happen. Therefore God said something He knew wasn’t true. Surely that’s lying… right?

So I’ve been wrestling with it. And here’s where I’ve landed.

Jonah Really Doesn’t Help

The obvious place to start is Nineveh. God sends Jonah with what must rank among the least seeker-sensitive sermons in history: “Forty more days and Nineveh will be overthrown” (Jonah 3:4). That’s it. No three points. No amusing anecdote. No worship team appearing behind him as he lowers his voice and asks everyone to close their eyes. Forty days. You’re toast.

And notice what Jonah doesn’t say: “Forty more days and Nineveh will be overthrown unless you repent.” At least, that condition isn’t included in the message Scripture records. Yet Nineveh repents. The king gets off his throne, removes his robes and sits in the dust. The people fast, cry out to God and turn from their violence. Then Jonah 3:10 tells us that when God saw what they had done, He relented and did not bring the destruction He had threatened.

There’s our problem. God said Nineveh would be destroyed. God knew Nineveh would repent. God knew He wouldn’t destroy Nineveh. Yet He sent Jonah to announce destruction.

Except there’s another passage that changes how we understand the whole thing.

Jeremiah Gives Us the Missing Piece

In Jeremiah 18, God explains how prophetic declarations of judgement work. He says that if He announces that a nation is to be uprooted and destroyed, but that nation repents of its evil, then He will relent from the disaster He had announced.

That matters because our argument assumes that when God says, “Nineveh will be destroyed,” He means, “Whatever happens next, regardless of repentance or humility, Nineveh will definitely be rubble in forty days.” But God has already told us that isn’t necessarily how declarations of judgement work. They are warnings, and warnings are designed to provoke a response.

Persistent rebellion meets judgement. Repentance meets mercy. God isn’t changing the rules halfway through the game. He’s acting consistently with the character He has already revealed.

The Warning Worked

This is where I think it becomes rather beautiful. God’s warning to Nineveh wasn’t a failed prediction. It worked. Nineveh was heading towards judgement. God sent Jonah. Jonah announced judgement. Nineveh believed the warning, repented and God showed mercy.

So the fact that the disaster never arrived doesn’t prove the warning was false. The disaster didn’t arrive because the warning accomplished exactly what God intended it to accomplish.

If I shout to one of my kids, “Stop! Keep walking that way and you’re going to get hit by that car,” and they stop, nobody accuses me of lying because they weren’t subsequently flattened by a Ford Focus. The warning prevented the outcome. Obviously Nineveh is slightly more complicated than crossing the road, but the principle holds. A warning can be completely true even when the thing being warned about never happens. Sometimes that’s the entire point.

Yes, But God Already Knew

Here comes the harder objection. God is omniscient. He wasn’t sitting in heaven on day thirty-nine nervously refreshing the Nineveh repentance statistics. Before Jonah boarded his spectacularly unsuccessful boat to Tarshish, God knew Nineveh would repent. He knew Jonah would preach, the people would respond and He would show mercy.

So why announce judgement at all?

Because God’s knowledge of the outcome includes His knowledge of the means by which that outcome comes about. God didn’t merely know, Nineveh survives. He knew the whole story: Nineveh rebels, God sends Jonah, Jonah announces judgement, the people believe the warning, they repent and God shows mercy.

The warning is part of how the outcome happens. Nineveh’s repentance doesn’t thwart God’s word. It responds to it.

So Who Actually Changed?

Something definitely changes in Jonah, but it isn’t God’s character. At the beginning, Nineveh is violent, wicked and unrepentant. God’s response is righteous judgement. Then Nineveh humbles itself and repents. God’s response is mercy.

The people changed. Their posture towards God changed. But God remained entirely consistent: holy towards sin and merciful towards repentance. In fact, if God responded to repentant Nineveh in exactly the same way He responded to rebellious Nineveh, that would raise questions about His consistency.

The change is real. It just isn’t a change in God’s character.

So Was God Lying?

No. And this is where the original argument falls apart. A lie involves communicating what is false in order to deceive. God wasn’t deceiving Nineveh. Nineveh really was under judgement. Its wickedness really had come before God. Destruction really was where its rebellion was heading.

And the Ninevites understood it as a warning. Their king says, “Who knows? God may yet relent and with compassion turn from his fierce anger so that we will not perish” (Jonah 3:9). Apparently the Ninevites understood something about prophetic judgement that I needed several cups of coffee and Jeremiah 18 to work out.

The judgement was real. The warning was true. Mercy was possible.

Jonah Knew What God Was Like

And then comes my favourite bit. Why did Jonah run away? For years I think I subconsciously assumed he was frightened of Nineveh. God told him to go somewhere dangerous, Jonah bottled it, found a boat and legged it in the opposite direction.

But Jonah tells us why he ran. And it wasn’t fear.

It was theology.

After Nineveh is spared, Jonah complains: “I knew that you are a gracious and compassionate God, slow to anger and abounding in love, a God who relents from sending calamity” (Jonah 4:2).

Basically: “I knew You’d do this.”

Jonah knew that if Nineveh heard the warning and repented, God would be merciful. Which means behind God’s warning stood God’s mercy. God could simply have judged Nineveh. Instead, He sent someone to warn them. Admittedly, the someone He sent desperately wanted them all dead, so the pastoral care package had room for improvement.

But God warned them because warnings create an opportunity to turn around.

The God Who Warns Is the God Who Saves

So does God make empty threats? No. His judgement is real. Sin matters. God’s holiness isn’t theatre. But prophetic warnings aren’t always unconditional predictions simply telling us what tomorrow will look like. Sometimes God speaks about what is coming precisely because He intends His words to change what happens next.

And suddenly this isn’t just an interesting theological problem. God warns because God is merciful. Before judgement comes a voice saying, Turn around. Before destruction comes an invitation to repentance. Before Nineveh falls, God sends Jonah.

And ultimately, before judgement falls upon us, God sends someone greater than Jonah: Jesus. The One who doesn’t merely warn us about judgement but steps into our place and bears judgement Himself.

So no, God doesn’t lie. Nineveh changed. God remained exactly who He had always been: holy enough to judge sin, merciful enough to warn sinners, and gracious enough to forgive those who turn to Him.

The judgement was real. The warning was true. The mercy was genuine.

And God was exactly who Jonah knew He would be: gracious and compassionate, slow to anger and abounding in love.